Day 21 Saturday 11th April
Keep the lid on for 2 more weeks. Plan, but don’t anticipate. Dream, but don’t gamble. Hope, but don’t relax your vigil. Let’s batten down until at least Anzac Day. As the WHO chief reminded us today, “the way down can be as dangerous as the way up if not managed properly.” This is borne out by the history of the “Spanish” flu 101 years ago. So suck in the big ones and stay the course.
NSW Government State Archives & Records have prepared a summary of pneumonic influenza or Spanish Flu, which killed 6,387 people in NSW between January and September 1919. Sydney alone had 290,000 infections. Now have regard for the sinister parallels with today’s coronavirus pandemic.
With wartime censorship lingering among nations, news of the outbreak did not escape Spain until September 1918. The spreading agent again was boat people, this time service men and women returning home from European battlefields. By late January 1919 at least 326 cases and 49 deaths were reported by the North Head quarantine station.
State Government acted by way of proclamation on 28 January, starting with the closure of “libraries, schools, churches, theatres, public halls, and places of indoor resort for public entertainment.” Two days later, three further proclamations issued: wearing of masks to cover mouth and nose, no public congregating, and no crossing the border from Victoria to NSW. However, outdoor activity was encouraged away from crowds. February saw closure of racecourses and hotels, along with a ban on public meetings. Fines of 20 pounds were imposed for breaches.
Relief depots were established with a majority volunteer workforce, augmented by 1,200 metropolitan Sydney school teachers plus nurses and doctors and late year medical students. Financial support was provided post-hoc through a system of compensation.
For all those pleading an early return to life before coronavirus, the sequence of waves is instructive:
- First or outbreak wave, 27 January to 18 March, was mild, with about 50 deaths.
- Second or high mortality wave, 19 March to 27 May, killed 1,542.
- Third or highest mortality wave, 28 May to 30 September, killed 4,302.
In response to falling mortality in the first wave, most of the restrictions were relaxed in March, but were reinstated in April as the second wave took hold. In May, again, almost all State-wide restrictions were cancelled. Younger, poorer males were most at risk on this occasion. Over 12,000 Australians died, half from NSW.
While your eye is on the curve, watch out for the wave, it’s a dumper.
The stats today:
United Kingdom suffered nearly 1,000 deaths overnight. New York alone lost 777 in the last 24 hours. 1.67 million cases have been reported world-wide with 101,500 deaths. Australia added 86 new cases to 6,238 with 56 deaths. Of those, NSW has 35 more today for 2,857 and 23 deaths.
Awesomely Astute 