The IMF (International Monetary Fund) Chief Economist says the world economy may shrink 3% in the worst recession since the Great Depression. It should, however, rebound 6% in 2021, conditional upon many unspecified factors. She predicts the Australian economy to shrink 6.7%. Job listings are already down 50%.
Emerging conflict is brewing over whether schools should be open or closed for term two. It seems there are fissures opening in cooperative arrangements between state and federal jurisdictions and across party lines. As this relationship is so critical to contain the virus, perhaps a suitable boundary spanner needs to coordinate relationship management.
There is growing concern that reported deaths are not capturing those who die outside of hospitals. An example is provided by the UK as the more than 12,000 reported are for hospitals and do not count those who die in nursing homes and other facilities, or indeed, at home. It has been reported that one in five deaths in the UK are due to the virus.
An enquiry into the bungled release of contaminated tourists from the Ruby Princess continues. When the war is over there will be enquiries into other aspects of the handling of the contagion. These will probably focus on information flow, coordination, resource distribution and logistics. With every reported death such enquiries may become more acrimonious as we return to divisive postures.
President Trump’s arrogant over-reach in condemning and withdrawing funding from WHO will have ramifications he hasn’t considered. It is one thing to hector and admonish an international agency for its handling of the pandemic, but quite another to render it less effective for the future for all nations. He appears impervious to learning or changing his actions following new information. Trump’s act of deflective petulance should result in US academics and system planners being denied access to the considerable output of public health initiatives and research generated by WHO.
Our days lack variety at present due to minimal interaction with others. Not quite ground-hog day but getting close as I examine a diary which is truly a blank canvas. When we wake from this nightmare we don’t want more of the same as before again. That was not so good for many people. To what extent do conservatives acknowledge, understand and show empathy for the less well-off whom they may regard as personally deficient? In contrast, Jason Wilson says in the Guardian (7 April 2020) that
“Progressives need to start forcefully making their own arguments about the meaning of the crisis. They need to offer a response that emphasizes social solidarity, equity, justice and peace.”
Who will lead us? Who is best equipped to co-design our future with us, not for us? Who is capable of posing the “what if” or “how about” questions concerning the following policy conundrums?
- Universal Basic Income (step up enonomic modelers please and run the numbers).
- How about a x1.2 loading for the votes of electors 18 to 30 as we are planning for them?
- Flexible workplaces that are less office-centric (which is an obsolete form of supervision).
- Industrial relations that are flexible for the worker as well as employer. We are traffic.
- Address climate change in a properly committed manner with urgency and innovation.
- Reduce media monopoly power that does so much damage to public discourse.
- Hedge market sectors and conduct risk assessment to mitigate over reliance on single segment trade, eg, Chinese students in universities. Simple diversification applied.
- Create an obligation for outrider views to be substantiated with credible evidence.
We have arrived at mid-April with nearly two million reported cases of COVID-19 and 127,594 deaths across the globe. Australia has 6,447 cases (47 added today) and 63 deaths. 371,000 tests have been conducted. NSW has added 16 new cases for a total of 2,886 and still 26 deaths.
Awesomely Astute 